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By Kanbawza Win
Everybody knows that the dog can wag its tail and not vice versa. I can’t believe my eyes when I read that ceasefire should come first before political discussions, when all the Non-Myanmar ethnic nationalities of Burma fought against the central government dominated by the Myanmar army, only because there is no genuine political discussion.
The crux of the Burmese problem is that because the Myanmar has not treated fairly to the non-Myanmar ethnic nationalities all these 60 plus years, the struggle in Burma is horizontal and not vertical as no ethnic will fights against another ethnic, as they fought unanimously against the big bully, the Myanmar Tatmadaw. If there is political discussions since 1950s there would have never being a civil war in Burma between the Myanmar and the non-Myanmar (the only group that the government will have to fight is the Burma Communist Party, which is based on ideology and now defunct). One cannot defy logic. Political discussions should come first and reached an amicable situation before the guns stop smoking. In other words the dog must wag its tail to show that it pleases and not the other way round.
Tatmadaw is the only one that will not honour the ceasefire per se as the Kachin General Gun Maw speaks in Rangoon, the Tatmadaw’s Military Operation Command 21 seized control of a refugee camp KIA-controlled territory in Mansi Township, Bhamo District, and forced around 2,000 people to flee for their lives, so much so that the international community including the UN has to request the government to stop the holocaust.
Reading between the lines it seems that the quasi-military government of Thein Sein which in Burmese we say Lonegy Wut Sit A Soe Ya meaning the exclusive ruling club of generals and ex-generals wearing Burmese civilian skirts has successfully used again its Divide and Rule policy over the ethnic nationalities by winning some of them with economic incentive and compelling the rest to agree to its agenda.
Lessons of 1990 Ceasefires
In the 1990’s the blowing of its own trumpet was the success of entering cease-fires agreement with various ethnic rebel forces. A partial list indicates this began with the Kokang and WA in 1989. In the case of the WA and their UWSA (United WA State Army) the terms of a cease-fire permitted them control over much of the lucrative narcotics industry. The process went on to include the Pa Oand Palaung in 1991, the Kayan in 1992, the powerful Kachin Independence Organization in 1994, the drug-lord Khun Sa’s Mong Tai Army and the Karenni National Defense Army in 1996, and finally the Mon Mergui Army in 1997.
The key to these agreements was the caveat that resistance arms could be kept, at least for the time being before being incorporated into the border force. But there are also ‘non cease-fire’ hold-outs, especially the Karen. Hence to engage these and other rebel bodies, the Tatmadaw makes use of allied ethnic forces. Thus the SSA finds as its chief opponent the United WA State Army, a proxy of the government, and the KNU confront the bizarrely-named pro-government Democratic Karen Buddhist Army. It was a good use of “Divide and Rule” policy of letting the two domestic cocks fight and when both of them are exhausted one can easily catch them to make a delicious meal. But not a single political deal was initiated with the ethnic nationalities.
At that time, it is important to note that the cease-fires were accepted by the various ethnic organizations in part because they promised a process of economic development followed by a political dialogue. It is true that roads and bridges have been built in frontier areas. For example, a high-quality asphalt road suddenly appears between Moulmein and Thanbyuzayat, and on to Tavoy Is it cynical to conclude, as some have done, that this and other engineering ventures are there more for emergency use by the army rather than to spur rural economic development? If development is quantifiable by the number of viable projects or employment opportunities in any given area, Burma has little to show to the ethnic nationalities that they are being taken seriously in this regard. This is a particularly sensitive issue in Kachin State, where the cease-fire has not brought any of the promised economic benefits, and where, as noted above, one of the former most powerful ethnic armies have surrounded dozens of Tatmadawunits and which the Burmese army construe that it would have had no chance at all of establishing their presence here prior to a cease-fire agreement.
The ethnic nationalities states are also sensitive to the fact that their traditional homelands or territories are the best endowed in terms of natural resources, notably timber, minerals and hydro-electric potential. These riches continue to be taken away, but there is little trickle-down for local residents who increasingly resent seeing both their environment haphazardly used, with substantial profits accrued by outsiders who claim monopoly of the state’s natural commodities. Purely view from this aspect the Myanmar Tatmadaw is actually an occupational colonial army bent on marginalizing the ethnic nationalities.
However, at that time the cease fire groups pinned their hope on the National Convention that will draw up the 2008 Nargis Constitution but to their great disappointment none of them were not even given a chance to put up their proposition and the last straw was the forcing of the border guards on them that the civil war started again.
Everybody knows the epic battles fought between the Kachin and the government where thousands died, the Myanmar Tatmadaw sustained more than 5,000 casualties, a figure the government dared not release. This is in spite of using the massive air force some of which are piloted by North Korea pilots, especially the JL-8 AND MI-24/35 planes. Still the Tatmadaw have not tackle the formidable UWSA and it finally dawn on the Tatmadaw leaders that force is not an option at all, as they could never win in the battle fields which they have fought for more than three score years. Together with the pressure from China whose benevolent approach of making Burma one of the autonomous regions of China compelled the Myanmar Tatmadaw leaders to smoke the pipes of peace and parleys with the ethnic nationalities just to please the West led by the US.
Marginalizing the Freedom Fighters
The Lonegy Wut Sit A Soe Ya headed by Thein Sein, but controlled by the supremo Than Shwe and the hard liners meticulously laid out their plan and manage to isolate the pro-democracy forces led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD by incorporating them in the government to isolate the ethnic nationalities (everybody have witness it). This proves the fact that the bicameral parliament is not only dominated by the USDP but also include the opposition in it to show to the international community that it was democratically elected. Having Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD in their bag, then it try to isolate the ethnic nationalities inside the country with those of the freedom fighters by forming the WGEC (Working Group for the Ethnic Communities) with those inside the country who have grudgingly cooperated with the government just to save their neck. Not that I am belittling or underestimating them as some of them like Khun Htun Oo, U Aye Thar Aung and the likes have stand steadfastly against the Tatmadaw thugs. But what I am high lighting is that like the NLD, ethnic nationalities residing inside the country are within the government’s reach which in Burmese say Let Khoke Hte Ka Yae meaning water in their hands and can do anything and is at the mercies of the government’s whims and fancies and surely they don’t need a cease fire. Hence the argument that these people including the USDP (ancestors of the butchers of Depaéyin) should be brought in for the cease fire is not logical.
To achieve a ceasefire is that the basic political agreement must be reached between the warring groups i.e. between the marauding Myanmar Tatmadaw and the rag tag ethnic nationality freedom fighters. How can a cease fire agreement can be reached if you keep attacking them as stated earlier in Mansi town in Kachin state?
But the balance of power is in favors of the regime, since almost the entire international community of nations, without exception of any pretense of even genocide of the Muslim Rohingya, can be allowed to stand in the way of this. Norway, and Germany's Friedrich Naumann and Friedrich Ebert Stiftungs, have actively been funding the "peace initiative," mainly through the Myanmar Peace Center via the ethnic national traitor Harn Yawnghwe and Htoo Htoo Lay help by Myanmar Egress, Vahu Development's Aung Naing Oo, and the Chinese spy representative Nyo Ohn Myint.
It can be seen that the regime was able to wean away the former students intellectuals like Zaw Oo and Min Min who got their Ph.Ds in foreign country and were given high position while the mass of the students are rotting in foreign countries living from hand to mouth, unable to go back to Burma for obvious reasons and living in nostalgia, unseen, unknown, and unlamented in a far flung place. These unsung heroes will soon fade out in history as the Lonegy Wut Sit a Soe Ya interprets. A sorrowful end for the glorious former ABSDF student’s masses. What more Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD who have joined the generals in calling for the resistance to surrender, and former political prisoners for the most part are not raising their voices about the issue. In other words, the pro-regime side is unified. On the other hand, there are significant fractures within the ethnic nationalities, largely because the fraudulently elected KNU leadership, warlord Yawd Serk, the womaniser and also the WA, who are very much corrupt.
It is everybody knowledge thatTatmadaw is attacking the KIA in a number of different areas, and also shelling the SSA. The negotiation is not about "peace" at all. Rather, it is about power. The regime wants absolute power, and is demanding that the ethnic forces surrender (to enter the "legal fold"). The ethnic nationalities in turn want an end to the abuses that are being perpetrated against their people; a new constitution that enshrines the principles of federalism; a new Federal Armed Forces; and through all of this not only peace for their people, but real power - a significant degree of self-determination to manage their own affairs. This is what is at stake in the Burma negotiation. The ethnic position is also just on human rights grounds. The dictators have been perpetrating crimes against humanity against them. The resistance, on the other hand, has the justness of their cause and their determination to fight. Even with this imbalance, the resistance has fought with great courage, and inflicted massive losses against the Tatmadaw. The generals have been reduced to forced conscription, including of children, to preserve their troops. Said another way, the regime cannot compel the ethnic groups to sign a national ceasefire.
The Glorious Karen, coming to a Sorrowful End
How come, the Karen resistance, that sets the world record as the longest resistance, coming to a sorrowful end? The answer is simple, they have lost the economic war, out maneuvered by the Myanmar who had meticulously studied the strategy of the two superpowers, French (battle of Dien Bien Phu) and America (the battle of Khe Sanh) thoroughly beaten in Vietnam has now successfully used the dollar diplomacy to overcome it. The same theory applies to KNU.
By nature the Karen are simple, quiet, unassuming and peace loving people, who uphold the high moral qualities of honesty, purity, brotherly love, co-operative living and loyalty, and are devout in their religious beliefs. They migrated southwards and gradually entered the land now known as Burma about 739 BC, earlier than the Myanmar. According to most historians, they were one of the first settlers in this new land. The Karen named this land kaw-lah, meaning the Green Land.
When the American missionaries arrived in the early 1800s they were welcomed with open arms by the Karen, who in their folklore had obscure references to a 'white brother' with a 'holy book'. Quite a few converted to Christianity of various sects and many also began to go to school. When the British occupied Burma, the conditions of the Karen gradually improved. With the introduction of law and order by the Colonial Central Authority, the Karen began to earn their living without being hindered, and could go to school and be educated. The Myanmar were infuriated to see the despised Karen being treated as equal by the British. Progress of the Karen people in almost all fields was fast, and by the beginning of the 20th Century, they were ahead of other peoples in many respects, especially in education, athletics and music.
In 1942, the Japanese invaded Burma along with the Burma Independence Army (BIA), who led them into the country. These BIA troops took full advantage of the situation by insinuating that the Karen were spies and puppets of the British. The bitter experiences of the Karen, especially during the Second World War, compelled them to think that unless they were and have a state of our own, they would never experience a life of peace, free from persecution and oppression. This is the crux of the Karen struggle for freedom. Soon after the Second World War, all the ethnic nationalities that had been under colonial rule were filled with national aspirations for independence. Successive Tatmadaw administration has embarked up the 3As (a, absorption, assimilation and annihilation), which have been practiced in the past upon all other nationalities by the Myanmar rulers.
Culturally, the different Myanmar administrations have attempted to absorb and dissolve the Karen language, literature, traditions, and customs. The Karen have been denied all political rights, and militarily, and Karen people have all along been systematically exterminated as part of the 3As.Their educational quality and living standards have dropped considerably, falling far behind the Myanmar in all respects. The oppressive policies of Myanmar became stronger than before when it imposed by the "Four Cuts Operation" in 60s. This includes cutting off lines of provisions, cutting the contact between the masses and the revolutionaries, cutting all revolutionary financial income and resources, and cutting off the heads of all revolutionaries, an extreme measures.
Hence, many Karen have left their cherished homeland and migrated to Thailand and elsewhere. But, despite this physical distance and differences in socio-political and intellectual orientation, the majority of Karen people share a common vision: to have ethnic equality and a right to self-determination within a Genuine Union of Burma. Change is a process, not a onetime deal or a single agreement. Each step should pave way for the next step so that we can move forward.
In the early 50s the Karen come near to overthrow Rangoon, but the Chin and the Kachin
Who were at that time has the real Pyidoungsu (union) spirit resolutely defended(at that time they had not tasted the treachery of the Myanmar leaders).When Toungoo fell in 1950, Gen. Ne Win predicted that the Karen resistance would be wiped out in two years. Again in1995 when the DKBA split and most of the resistance signed a ceasefire agreement, Gen. Khin Nyunt predicted that the Karen insurgents would be wiped out in 2 years. Now it is nearly two decades and the
Lonegy Wut Sit A Soe Yahas embarked upon its new policy of the dollar diplomacy with Harn (the darling of EU) influencing core Karen leaders, who knew that the Karen population as a whole is tired of fighting and exploited to the full. But the inside sources says only about 30% of the KNU leadership accepted this trick and that the 2nd and 3rd levels of KNU are not happy with the reactionary corrupt policy. On the other hand the regime regards the KNU to be as good as surrender. However, the appeasement group cannot do as much as they would like to and so they came up with the idea of the Hpa-An Conference the stronghold of the 7th Brigade area of the KNLA where the current leaders Saw Mutu Sae Poe and Padoh Saw Kwe Htoo Win connive with the government team will be held in December leaving the mass Karen out. Perhaps, the impending Hpa An Conference is the last commissar of the formidable Karen fighting force.
The EU promise to give $ 120 million a year, supposedly for strengthening the transition via Euro Burma Office of Harn and would be very dangerous for all the oppositions and the peace effort, as it will bolster the regime. According to one MPC guy, the regime is not engaged in transition, but liberalization, at best, it would be gradual change, but one thing is sure there can never be a lasting peace unless there is true democracy and federalism are practiced in the country and this is exactly what the Myanmar Tatmadaw is vehemently opposed to.
The current regime is using the same strategy of isolating the resistance forces for wiping out militarily, one at a time, as the previous regimes did. A sort of a Pin-ja-geh-ku situation for the regime, now, and it has to pamper the KNU/KNLA with more promises and some acts of concession. But the core of the ethnic nationalities leaders knew that U Aung Min, the chief negotiator of the government, is only an outer-circle man. Even his mentor, President Thein Sein, has no power to change the strategy. The military faction has about 50%, the parliament about 30% and the executive branch about 20% of the power.
The basic concept is that central administration disregarded the basic concept of 'unity in diversity'. Particularly Arakan and Mon are being neglected and treated as a 'colony' of Burma. One has to recollect that nation is defined as a large group of human beings sharing common historical traditions, inhabiting or identifying with a particular territory, having generally speaking a common language, who feel they form a single and exclusive community is being discarded in Burma. Even, the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization (UNPO) has urged representatives of the European Union to consider the rights of ethnic minorities in Burma in EU-Burma meeting but nothing was mentioned. Burma’s political transition is now entering an important stage and for it to be genuine and enduring it is critical that all stakeholders, including members of all ethnic armed groups, political parties, civil society organizations, lawmakers, and military and government leaders, be part of the political dialogue process. More importantly, the ethnic groups must be given the right to manage their future and work together with the government to bring peace to the country.
A Bird’s Eye View
Looking from a distance it is very clear that the Tatmadaw is not going to compromise its hold on the country. Hence the strengthening the legitimacy of the army will continue to be Longie Wut Sit A Soe Ya number one priority. So, the international community must note that the new mood music in Burma’s background is that the current generals and ex-generals cannot conceivably succeed in frog-marching the country towards peace, prosperity and democracy with this rate. A glance at their half-century-old record of failures at playing omniscient nation-builders suffices. One should recollect that the country is ranked second to last, just ahead of Somalia, on Transparency International's Corruption Index. There are pockets of local communities whose socioeconomic and humanitarian conditions are closer to those of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa than to those of an Asian country about to “take off” developmentally. Hence the Truth is, the same old military leadership is aggressively engaged in a well-timed and well-calculated strategy designed to placate diverse target groups, both domestically and internationally, with carefully crafted multiple spins.
Burma has always kept it that way - the guessing game - course of direction that the Tatmadaw leadership might regret later. There is no Sincerity, one word in the communique that addressed the "core issue is.” Few doubt that that this would translate into serious reform in spite of the need for change is so evident. Investors knew that the wind of change is in the air. The Lonegy Wut Sit A Soe Ya is aware that the legitimacy and the foundations that held the country together for so long have been chipped away by corruption and elitism and insincerity. The challenge, it seems, is how to push for reform at a pace comfortable to the leadership, so that they can minimize confrontation with people who have benefited handsomely under the present system. Burma's challenge is from within and the ethnic nationalities. Gap between the 'haves' and 'have-nots' is getting wider, along with crowded urban areas that add to environmental degradation and massive corruption are some of the things Burma is faced with. Few people think the government could do it without allowing the public, namely the middle class, a greater say about the problems they face. The call for change is not just coming from dissidents but from the Burmese intellectuals who acknowledge that reform is a must if Burma is to stay on a sustainable economic development course. Hence, investing in Burma will not be a walk in the park.
A national ceasefire now, without any significant conditions, including an ending of the regime's hostilities and abuse, and withdrawal of the occupational Tadmadaw from its ethnic nationalities area is unthinkable. The generals would win 100 to 0. Burma would continue to be a dictatorship for many, many years, if not forever. Remember, the regime has already sent strong signals that it will not materially amend the 2008 Constitution, and that current Army head Min Aung Hlaing will run for President in 2015.
To the ethnic nationalities, they have demonstrated a classic example of what they are doing to the Rohingyas, a systematic genocide if they resisted. It is Rohingya today and tomorrow will be another ethnic race. This is a clear signal, a clear sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of the ethnic nationalities, before the Hpa An Conference ceasefire first before political discussions. This is just another step in Senior General Than Shwe's self-protection and legitimization of the dictatorship strategy. It is naive - outrageously stupid, actually - to think that Than Shwe and his heirs will ever give up power, when so many of their fellow autocrats are conscientiously defending theirs.
I would strongly agree with Dr Zarni when he comment that, “The change in Burma today is a product, almost of strictly a pact between the elites and Western strategic interests in Washington, the European Union, and the corporate interests that they represent, and Aung San Suu Kyi and her own parties interests and the ruling military’s interests.” Without the people being involved in any change process it’s just elite power deals. Portraying Burma as the opening up to commercial and strategic interests is not the change when the ethnic nationalities and religious minorities are fighting back for their survival. People say, the process in Burma is not perfect, but everyone who uses that phrase –it’s not better than before –. Before we did not have genocide (Rohingya), we did not have a full-blown war against the Kachin. We did not have thousands of Burmese people displaced by mega-development projects. Now you have Burmese dissidents who enjoy support. It clearly indicated that the Longie Wut Sit A Soe Ya, is more interested in western investment, esp. in its ethnic nationalities resource-rich ethnic areas than true peace under a federal system of government.
A Silver Lining
Am I too pessimistic in my opinion for after, life is hope? Without hope life is nothing. These is just a small silver lining i.e. if they really repent of what they had done to the country for more than half a century, ask forgiveness to the people and let go off their power with a vision for another millennium then there is a silver lining in disentangling this Burmese Gordion knot. But the big question will the Tatmadaw generals who all are power maniacs be magnanimous for the country. The U.N. Secretary-General's special advisor on Burma, Vijay Nambiar, was hopeful for the whole region. "It represents a distinct new stage in the development of the national reconciliation. I hope as they move forward, because the real work is in the future, they will be able to provide the same kind of optimism," he commented.
Hence, in face of this difficult situation, the real ethnic opposition must allied under the banner of the UNFC, because of their continued willingness to fight, they have been able to hold off the demand for surrender. It is essential that the UNFC maintain this position - for years if need be. If the ethnic groups follow the KNU and the SSA-S and give up, they will lose everything. Any chance of real freedom for the country will be lost, and their people will be sentenced to never-ending land thefts, subjugation, and abuse. The folly of the Shan and Karen leaders will go downs in the annals of history as betrayal and every ethnic nationalities life will be short and miserable.
The UNFC, whose delegation is now visiting Rangoon have witnessed more homeless and blackout than the high-rise buildings which the government want to show, must press on for a genuine transition, since it wants to have lasting peace also. Now it is calling Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to participate in the deliberations with the government. If she consented then the unity between the pro-democracy groups and the ethnic nationalities will be a real challenge to the Tatmadaw dominated government and Burma will be on the way to reform.
We appeal to the international community especially the West led by US and EU to be realistic in dealing with the current The Lonegy Wut Sit A Soe Ya and perhaps heed what Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has all the time being advising, "I think many governments, not just the Australian government, generally like to get on with whoever happens to be in power at the moment," in her address in Sydney to call on foreign governments to take a long-term view of her country as it works to shed the vestiges of a brutal military regime.
On the Tatmadaw side they must clearly see that the will to fight by generations of ethnic nationalities is not to be underestimate as perhaps three generations have already made it. Like the War of the Roses if there is no amicable solution the fight will have to be carry on for another 100 years if not more. Dr. Thant Myint U has beautifully coined it as, “The peace process in Myanmar is at a pivotal stage. If successful, the prospect of further democratic reform will be strengthened and the door to the country’s economic potential unlocked. The map of Asia will fundamentally change. If the peace process collapses, the impact will be catastrophic, not only for Burma but for the whole region and the world…There is mistrust to be overcome and political deals to be struck, but the far thornier obstacle may be the moneymaking interests on all sides that have a lot to lose from reform. Success, however, will be a game-changer. Burma’s greatest natural asset is not its vast hydropower potential or its offshore gas fields but its unique strategic position between the markets of China, India and Southeast Asia. With peace and the emergence of strong, representative local government, an end to the country’s isolation and new investments could quickly lift millions from poverty. A new Asian crossroads would emerge, based not on the exploitation of Burma’s instability, but on local consent and shared prosperity. The process so far has been entirely home-grown. Maximum support from the international community in the coming weeks will be essential. Global leaders simply voicing their strongest backing for the process will be immensely valuable.”
The onus is now purely on the UNFC, either it will make or break it, what vision do they have for the Genuine Union of Burma or are they going bow down to the pressure of the Union of Myanmar, with an illogical lopsided Constitution, to have ceasefire without political conditions just as letting the tail wag the dog?
Weng; Lawi, Kachin Clashes Leave IDPs out in the Cold Irrawaddy 21-11-2013
The exception being the Mong Tai Army which reportedly traded “arms for peace”.Bertil Linter gives a good review of the cease-fires and their consequences. See “Drugs and Economic Growth in Burma”, in Burma/Myanmar: Strong Regime, Weak State? Ed. Mortem Pedersen, et al. Adelaide: Crawford house, 2000, p.172. A comprehensive list of seventeen “Armed National Groups that have achieved peace with the Government”, with “dates of entry into the legal fold”, armed strength and names of leaders is found in Yan Nye in Aye, Endeavors of the Myanmar Armed Forces Government for National Reconsolidation, Yangon: (no press indicated). 2000, p.108.
A good review of the DKBA is found in “Facets of a Buddhist Army”, Parts 1, 2. Burma Issues, (Bangkok) 8, no. 7 & 8 (1998
One can refer to the CMA Controller of Military Accounts Office for the exact figures
Refer to the Burmese Military Intelligence Report, the original I dare not reveal because that person life will be in danger.
Watson; Roland. Negotiated Surrender in Burma?11-11-2013
One would remember Nang Khur Seng (Nang Nu), a spokesperson for the Shan, whose eloquence captivated the Burmese audience over the BBC and VOA, a teacher in the Shan resistance protested to Yawd Serk, one day for demanding two of her students to sleep with him. For this she was expelled from the Shan resistance and substitute it with some other person.
Watson; Roland.Negotiated Surrender in Burma?11-11-2013
Khin: Ba Saw FIFTY YEARS OF STRUGGLE A Review of the Fight for the Karen People’s Autonomy Revised version 2005 Tucson Atisona
Saw Kapi, Karens at the Crossroads inIrrawaddy 22-12-2012
See its news release on 8th Nov. 2013
U Kyaw Tin Burma’s permanent representative told the UNGA Govt. Rejects UN Calls for Rohingya Citizenship Irrawaddy, 21-11-2013
Watson; Roland. Negotiated Surrender in Burma?11-11-2013
Dr Zarni’s interview with Praxis
UNFC General Secretary Nai Han Thar and vice presidents David Thakapaw and Abel Tweet arrived Sunday as part of the trust building
Mann;Zarni, UNFC Reiterates Call for Suu Kyi’s Voice in Peace Talks The Irrawaddy 26-11-2013
This will be a crucial test for Daw Suu of whether she identifies herself with the ethnic nationalities or confine to Myanmar race only.
Herald Sun News 26-11-2013
Myint U;Thant, Help Myanmar’s peace talks to transform Asia Financial Times 21-11- 2013
- Asian Tribune -
Friday, November 29, 2013
ေဆာင္းပါးေကာင္းတပုဒ္... အခ်ိန္ယူျပီး ဖတ္....