DEVELOPMENTS KACHINS FIND DISTURBING

DEVELOPMENTS KACHINS FIND DISTURBING
Information received just this morning (March 21, 2012) from Laiza


Topics
1. The on-going fighting - current battles list
2. Ominous indications?
3. Where is President Thein Sein's position?
4. It is now unmistakably a regional security issue

1. On-going fighting
a. On Bhamo-Myitkyina highway intense fighting is reported at Namsan Yang. New Tatmadaw units keep arriving at Bhamo, Daw Hpum Yang and Gangdau Yang, to the south of battle area.
b. Shwego-Sinbo in southern Bhamo District, there are two places where fighting is in progress.
c. Around Seng Maw (Jade mines area) Burman civilians are now part of the large movement of displaced persons.
d. The onslaught on unarmed civilians continues relentlessly.
e. So far the Kachins are inflicting substantial casualty on government forces.

2. Ominous indicationss
a. Seemingly endless application of chemical bombs that cause disorientation, headache, etc. Captured weapons by the KIA show Chinese labeling.
b. Tatmadaw commanders themselves are shooting into civilian settlements and then claiming that the KIA had done it.
c. The widespread belief, based on news coming from Kachins who are Chinese nationals, that China wants the Bhamo-Myitkyina highway secured within one week, as of March 13.
d. If the Chinese are specifying military targets - areas and dates - the political implications as regards who is in charge of this war on the government side becomes very worrisome.
e. The backbone of Tatmadaw strategy may finally be clearer today: to defeat the Kachin opposition by relentlessly wreaking merciless war on Kachin civilians.

3. Where is President Thein Sein's position?
a. The news quietly passed to the KIO from the government delegation leader of recent talks, U Aung Thaung, says that his side has been unable to make any change in the war policy.
b. The Chinese are beginning to reveal their hands-on role: to wit, trade missions members making statements, such as recently in Canada, defending the Tatmadaw, continuing provisioning of military hardware through Muse, and having the Tatmadaw frontline commanders be aware that there is a target area and a deadline emanating from Chinese side. Among other implications, the hard-line faction of the ruling Tatmadaw power base is clearly in charge of the war in Kachin State, and this is where China's hand is being revealed. Where is President Thein Sein on this? Is he going along, or is he just helpless?
c. China's declared goals are 1) to have access to resources in Kachinland, 2) unhindered trade access to India for which passage through Kachinland is necessary, and 3) to remove the Kachin armed political opposition in its plans to reach the deep-water, warm-water coast of Arakan.


4. By any reckoning this is a regional security issue for the western democratic nations.
The details I have iterated above leave no room for doubt.


My information this morning was received from a civilian advisor at Laiza, who is also a KIO representative for external contacts. Given the current level of alert the KIO staff themselves are off-limits for contact.


Should any foreign affairs official from the US, Canada or the UK desire more information I am prepared to oblige to the limit of my ability in the present situation.


Maran La Raw, PhD
Kachin Political Affairs Analyst
USADEVELOPMENTS KACHINS FIND DISTURBING
Information received just this morning (March 21, 2012) from Laiza


Topics
1. The on-going fighting - current battles list
2. Ominous indications?
3. Where is President Thein Sein's position?
4. It is now unmistakably a regional security issue


1. On-going fighting
a. On Bhamo-Myitkyina highway intense fighting is reported at Namsan Yang. New Tatmadaw units keep arriving at Bhamo, Daw Hpum Yang and Gangdau Yang, to the south of battle area.
b. Shwego-Sinbo in southern Bhamo District, there are two places where fighting is in progress.
c. Around Seng Maw (Jade mines area) Burman civilians are now part of the large movement of displaced persons.
d. The onslaught on unarmed civilians continues relentlessly.
e. So far the Kachins are inflicting substantial casualty on government forces.


2. Ominous indicationss
a. Seemingly endless application of chemical bombs that cause disorientation, headache, etc. Captured weapons by the KIA show Chinese labeling.
b. Tatmadaw commanders themselves are shooting into civilian settlements and then claiming that the KIA had done it.
c. The widespread belief, based on news coming from Kachins who are Chinese nationals, that China wants the Bhamo-Myitkyina highway secured within one week, as of March 13.
d. If the Chinese are specifying military targets - areas and dates - the political implications as regards who is in charge of this war on the government side becomes very worrisome.
e. The backbone of Tatmadaw strategy may finally be clearer today: to defeat the Kachin opposition by relentlessly wreaking merciless war on Kachin civilians.


3. Where is President Thein Sein's position?
a. The news quietly passed to the KIO from the government delegation leader of recent talks, U Aung Thaung, says that his side has been unable to make any change in the war policy.
b. The Chinese are beginning to reveal their hands-on role: to wit, trade missions members making statements, such as recently in Canada, defending the Tatmadaw, continuing provisioning of military hardware through Muse, and having the Tatmadaw frontline commanders be aware that there is a target area and a deadline emanating from Chinese side. Among other implications, the hard-line faction of the ruling Tatmadaw power base is clearly in charge of the war in Kachin State, and this is where China's hand is being revealed. Where is President Thein Sein on this? Is he going along, or is he just helpless?
c. China's declared goals are 1) to have access to resources in Kachinland, 2) unhindered trade access to India for which passage through Kachinland is necessary, and 3) to remove the Kachin armed political opposition in its plans to reach the deep-water, warm-water coast of Arakan.


4. By any reckoning this is a regional security issue for the western democratic nations.
The details I have iterated above leave no room for doubt.


My information this morning was received from a civilian advisor at Laiza, who is also a KIO representative for external contacts. Given the current level of alert the KIO staff themselves are off-limits for contact.


Should any foreign affairs official from the US, Canada or the UK desire more information I am prepared to oblige to the limit of my ability in the present situation.


Maran La Raw, PhD
Kachin Political Affairs Analyst
USA